USDA WASDE December Report - 11.12.2019
In the December balance sheet, USDA experts increased the forecast for world oilseed production in 2019/20 MY by 3.3 million tons to 574.6 million tons compared to the previous report, primarily due to an increase in soybean production in China by 1 million tons and sunflower in Ukraine and Russia at 2.2 million tons.
In 2018/19 MY, the world production of oilseeds reached a record 596.59 million tons, which is 2.6% more than in 2017/18 MY.
According to the new forecast, in comparison with the previous season, global soybean production will decrease by 20.73 million tons to 337.48 million tons, rapeseed - by 3.916 million tons to 68.02 million tons, while sunflower will grow by 2.171 million tons to 53, 48 million tons.
So it is expected that in comparison with the previous season, sunflower production in Ukraine in 2019/20 MY will grow by 0.5 million tons to 15.5 million tons, Russia - by 1.79 million tons to a record 14.5 million tons, the EU - by 0.237 million tons to 9.75 million tons, while in Argentina it will decrease by 0.5 million tons to 3.3 million tons.
At the same time, compared with the forecast for November, the estimate for the production of sunflower oil in Ukraine in 2019/20 MY was increased from 5.906 to 6.536 million tons, and meal - from 6.149 to 6.278 million tons.
The increase in world production will lead to an increase in world processing volumes to 49.1 million tons, which is 2.26 million tons more than in 2018/19 MY. As a result, the final stocks of sunflower will decrease to 2.6 million tons, which is 0.24 million tons lower than the level of 2018/19 MY.
Due to the increase in prices for vegetable oils, the demand for sunflower is growing, so the purchase prices in Ukraine and Russia continue to recover after a collapse at the beginning of the season to a multi-year low.